Frank Bruni, a contributing Opinion writer, hosted a written online conversation on Friday, Nov. 1, with Kristen Soltis Anderson, a contributing Opinion writer and Republican pollster, and Nate Silver, the author of “On the Edge: The Art of Risking Everything” and the newsletter Silver Bulletinslot paraiso, to discuss polling and politics in the final days of the race between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump. Their conversation has been edited for length and clarity.
Frank Bruni: Kristen, Nate, thank you for joining me. Election Day is almost here, and still it seems that nobody really knows anything. Democrats fret — that’s their nature. MAGA Republicans strut, emulating their idol. And you two? Nate, because you recently wrote a widely read guest essay for us about your gut auguring a victory by Donald Trump, I want to check on your gut now. Guts change. Has yours?
Nate Silver: Well, the whole point of that article — including the headline — was that I don’t think my gut is worth anything in this case. Many people interpreted it differently, as though I was revealing my super-duper secret real prediction. And I expected that. But your gut feeling a week before the election will mostly be an emotional response or picking up on the vibes through osmosis — Republicans are invariably more confident so that seeps through — and I don’t think either of those things will help you make a better prediction.
Kristen Soltis Anderson: Whenever people ask me who I think will win, and I steadfastly refuse to tell them — because I don’t feel confident we know how this is going to go given the available data — people get very frustrated. It is understandable, we all want certainty. People want to mentally or emotionally prepare for an outcome. They don’t like surprises. And I’m sorry to say, you should continue to mentally and emotionally prepare for a wide range of outcomes.
Silver: For what it’s worth, though, the models have been pretty momentumless lately, whereas Harris had been falling in mid-October. Prediction markets are also shifting more in line with the models, showing a 50-50-ish race. Maybe it’s dawning on people that this is an uncertain and close race.
Bruni: Nate, you bring up that dread 50-50 number. Kristen, you mention frustration. I want to talk about the frustration of this pesky “tie” word. I distrust it. I abhor it. A tie is very, very unsatisfying — and how can it really be? As narrative, the Harris-Trump face-off doesn’t play: Chapter 1, it’s a tie. Chapter 5, a tie. Chapter 10 … a tie! Is that truly possible? Please illuminate. Not just for me but also for many readers like me, please administer some tie therapy — including, if possible, your thoughts on how likely the result could be far from a tie?
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